ADMA Biologics [ADMA] — Catalyst Calendar
As of 2026-07-29 · Catalyst Criteria is MEASURED — it informs monitoring, it blocks nothing.
Rule applied: no date is fabricated. Where ADMA has not announced a date, the entry says so and gives the observed historical pattern instead. A fabricated catalyst date is worse than an absent calendar.
Dated and confirmed
| Date | Event | Source | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|---|
| By August 2026 | ASR completion. "The remaining shares under the ASR Agreement are expected to be repurchased by August 2026." ~5.0m shares still to be delivered on the $125m notional. | Q1 2026 10-Q, Note 8 | Reduces diluted count to ~235m (+2.1% to the target). Also the last tranche of a repurchase struck at $16.58 against an $8.79 stock. |
| July 2026 (now elapsing) | CFO transition completes. Brad Tade serves in a consulting capacity "through July 2026"; Terry Kohler is CFO. | 8-K EX-99.1 2026-02-25 | The incoming CFO was hired explicitly for "working capital optimization" and "cash generation" — the exact two things that broke in FY2025. First full quarter owned by the new CFO is Q3 2026. |
| 5 August 2028 | JPM Credit Facilities maturity (term loan + revolver). | Q1 2026 10-Q, Note 7 | Two years out; not a near-term risk. Covenants: max total leverage 2.50x, min fixed charge coverage 1.20x; in compliance at 2026-03-31 at ~0.70x. |
Expected, date NOT announced
| Expected | Event | Basis for the expectation | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|---|
| Early August 2026 | Q2 2026 results. | ⚠️ Date not announced by ADMA. Prior Q2 prints: 2023-08-09, 2024-08-08, 2025-08-06. | The single decisive event. Management called Q1 "a trough revenue baseline" and said "the second quarter run rate based on April demand is in-line with the level of first quarter direct sales" — i.e. flat again, not a recovery. Watch: revenue vs $135m / $118m; DSO vs 75 / 100 days; whether FY2026 guidance holds; gross margin sustainability above 68%. |
| Early November 2026 | Q3 2026 results | Prior Q3 prints: 2023-11-08, 2024-11-07, 2025-11-05. Not announced. | First full quarter under the new CFO. |
| Late February 2027 | FY2026 results | Prior FY prints: 2024-02-28, 2025-03-03, 2026-02-25. Not announced. | Whether long-term guidance is reinstated, and on what named mechanism. |
| During FY2026 | SG-001 pre-IND package to FDA. "We anticipate submitting a pre-Investigational New Drug (IND) package to the FDA in fiscal year 2026, which could enable us to progress development of SG-001 directly into a registrational clinical trial." | FY2025 10-K. No date given. | Preclinical. Company claims a "$300 to $500 million annual market opportunity" — excluded from all valuation in this memo. A pre-IND submission is a process step, not a de-risking event. |
| Unknown | CNPV decision. A Commissioner's National Priority Voucher application was submitted in September 2025; "if accepted and approved, could accelerate FDA review by two fiscal quarters or more." | FY2025 10-K. No decision date disclosed. | Optionality on SG-001 timing only. |
Already delivered — recorded so it is not double-counted as future upside
| Date | Event | Source |
|---|---|---|
| 4 May 2026 | FDA approved the ASCENIV paediatric label expansion — PI indication extended from 12+ years to 2 years and older. | 8-K EX-99.1 2026-05-04 |
| 6 May 2026 | Q1 2026 results; FY2026 guidance cut to $530–560m; all long-term guidance withdrawn; Audit Committee review concluded. | 8-K EX-99.1 2026-05-06 |
| 27 March 2026 | Rebuttal of the Culper Research short report, with first-ever disclosure of distributor inventory days of coverage. | 8-K EX-99.1 2026-03-27 |
| 24 March 2026 | Culper Research short report published. | referenced in the 2026-03-27 8-K |
| 2 March 2026 | $125.0m drawn on the JPM revolver to fund a $125m accelerated share repurchase. | Q1 2026 10-Q, Notes 7 & 8 |
| 25 February 2026 | FY2025 results; 2026–2029 guidance reiterated (FY2026 >$635m, FY2029 >$1.1bn / >$700m Adj EBITDA); CFO retirement announced. | 8-K EX-99.1 2026-02-25 |
| Q1 2026 | Sale of three plasma collection centres completed for $12.0m aggregate; $8.0m pre-tax gain booked in operating income. Network now seven centres. | Q1 2026 10-Q; FY2025 10-K |
| April 2025 | FDA approved the Prior Approval Supplement for the Yield Enhancement process (+20% output per litre). FY2026 is its first full year. | FY2025 10-K |
What is NOT on this calendar, and why
- No plasma-centre openings. ADMA states in the FY2025 10-K: "At the present time, we do not plan to build additional plasma collection facilities." There is no capacity-addition catalyst to wait for, and its absence is the central finding of this memo.
- No second yield programme. None is disclosed.
- No sized paediatric contribution. ADMA published no patient-count or revenue estimate with the 4 May approval; none is invented here.
- No consensus-revision calendar. Alpha Vantage quota was exhausted 2026-07-29; no Street estimates were obtained. Consensus Criteria is INDETERMINATE and blocks nothing.
- No sell-side or conference dates. None could be confirmed from a primary source and none is asserted.
Catalyst Criteria assessment: a dated confirming event exists — the Q2 2026 print, expected early August
2026 — and it is a clean test of management's own "trough baseline" claim against its own "April in line with
Q1" statement. Time works for a long, so criteria.md does not require a dated event to own a compounder;
here one exists anyway, within days.