ADMA Biologics [ADMA] — Financial Model Notes
As of 2026-07-29. Every figure below is derived from SEC XBRL companyfacts (CIK 0001368514), the FY2025
10-K, the Q1 2026 10-Q, or the 8-K EX-99.1 earnings releases. Reproduction scripts are in scripts/ at the
repository root; cached raw data in data/.
No Excel workbook was produced for this name. The valuation is a reverse DCF plus a multiple grid, both of
which are fully specified in ADMA_Valuation.md and reproducible from the scripts. A spreadsheet would add no
information and would introduce a second, un-audited copy of the same arithmetic.
1. Reported P&L — quarterly, from XBRL
Q4 figures are derived (FY minus the tagged nine-month period), because US registrants do not tag Q4
separately. The window was checked for consecutiveness before summing — this is the defect
valuation.md flags as silently spanning 15 months.
| Quarter | Revenue $m | Gross profit $m | GM % | Op income $m | OM % | Net income $m |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 2024 | 81.875 | 39.108 | 47.8% | 21.821 | 26.7% | — |
| Q2 2024 | 107.191 | 57.453 | 53.6% | 39.201 | 36.6% | — |
| Q3 2024 | 119.839 | 59.659 | 49.8% | 39.638 | 33.1% | 35.909 |
| Q4 2024 (derived) | 117.549 | 63.333 | 53.9% | 38.323 | 32.6% | — |
| Q1 2025 | 114.802 | 61.097 | 53.2% | 34.881 | 30.4% | 26.904 |
| Q2 2025 | 121.984 | 67.227 | 55.1% | 42.798 | 35.1% | 34.219 |
| Q3 2025 | 134.224 | 75.626 | 56.3% | 51.012 | 38.0% | 36.428 |
| Q4 2025 (derived) | 139.163 | 88.816 | 63.8% | 62.751 | 45.1% | 49.379 |
| Q1 2026 | 114.493 | 80.750 | 70.5% | 58.274 | 50.9% | 45.328 |
Annual:
| FY | Revenue $m | Gross profit $m | GM % | Op income $m | OM % | Net income $m | CFO $m | Capex $m | FCF $m |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 80.943 | 1.173 | 1.4% | −58.374 | — | — | −112.4 | 13.5 | −125.9 |
| 2022 | 154.080 | 35.265 | 22.9% | −39.365 | — | — | −59.5 | 13.9 | −73.4 |
| 2023 | 258.215 | 88.942 | 34.4% | 21.632 | 8.4% | — | 8.8 | 4.8 | 4.0 |
| 2024 | 426.454 | 219.553 | 51.5% | 138.983 | 32.6% | 197.673 | 118.7 | 8.2 | 110.5 |
| 2025 | 510.173 | 292.765 | 57.4% | 191.443 | 37.5% | 146.930 | 50.4 | 22.6 | 27.8 |
Other FY2025 lines used: SBC $20.0m, D&A $8.0m.
2. TTM to 2026-03-31 — the figures the valuation runs on
| Reported | Clean | Adjustment | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $509.864m | $509.864m | — |
| Gross profit | $312.419m (61.3%) | $312.419m | — |
| EBIT | $214.835m (42.1%) | $206.835m (40.6%) | less the $8.0m Q1 2026 pre-tax gain on the sale of three plasma centres, which sits inside operating income |
| Net income | $165.354m | — | — |
Verification that the gain is inside operating income (Q1 2026, $m):
80.750 GP − 2.600 R&D − 1.100 plasma-centre opex − 0.100 amortisation − 26.700 SG&A + 8.000 gain = 58.250
against the tagged OperatingIncomeLoss of 58.274. Ties to within $0.024m of rounding. ✅
Scale cross-check required by the brief:
net income ÷ diluted shares = 45,328 ÷ 239,955,762 = $0.189 vs filed diluted EPS $0.19. ✅
45,328 ÷ 236,072,751 basic = $0.192 vs filed basic EPS $0.19. ✅
3. Balance sheet and share count
| 2024-12-31 | 2025-12-31 | 2026-03-31 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cash | 103.147 | 87.630 | 138.153 |
| Accounts receivable, net | 49.999 | 158.429 | 135.862 |
| Inventory, net | 170.235 | 206.465 | 222.098 |
| Total assets | 488.678 | 624.242 | 665.184 |
| Total liabilities | 139.660 | 146.922 | 274.859 |
| Stockholders' equity | 349.018 | 477.320 | 390.325 |
LongTermDebt (incl. current) |
72.337 | 72.143 | 196.865 |
LongTermDebtNoncurrent |
72.337 | 69.330 | 193.584 |
| Shares outstanding (BS) | 236,620,545 | 237,874,496 | 232,288,977 |
| Shares outstanding (cover page) | 237,615,100 (2025-03-10) | 238,159,176 (2026-02-20) | 231,772,715 (2026-05-01) |
| Diluted weighted-average | — | 244,904,640 (FY25) | 239,955,762 (Q1'26) |
Net debt used: $58.712m = 138.153 − 196.865. The screen used $55.431m, i.e. cash less
LongTermDebtNoncurrent only, omitting the $3.281m current portion. Difference $3.281m — immaterial to
the conclusion, reported because the brief requires discrepancies be reported and never silently adopted.
The Q1 2026 equity movement reconciles the buyback: 477.320 + 45.328 net income = 522.648 expected;
actual 390.325; difference −$132.3m, before SBC credits — consistent with the $125.0m ASR plus $5.2m of
open-market repurchases plus $0.7m of excise tax disclosed in Note 8.
4. Working-capital series (the accruals finding)
| Quarter end | Revenue $m | AR $m | DSO | Inventory $m | COGS $m | DIO |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-06-30 | 107.2 | 30.1 | 25.6 | 179.8 | 49.7 | 330 |
| 2024-09-30 | 119.8 | 50.1 | 38.2 | 171.8 | 60.2 | 260 |
| 2024-12-31 | 117.5 | 50.0 | 38.8 | 170.2 | 54.2 | 287 |
| 2025-03-31 | 114.8 | 99.4 | 79.0 | 172.2 | 53.7 | 293 |
| 2025-06-30 | 122.0 | 109.7 | 82.1 | 191.5 | 54.8 | 319 |
| 2025-09-30 | 134.2 | 137.7 | 93.6 | 196.7 | 58.6 | 306 |
| 2025-12-31 | 139.2 | 158.4 | 103.9 | 206.5 | 50.3 | 374 |
| 2026-03-31 | 114.5 | 135.9 | 108.3 | 222.1 | 33.7 | 601 |
DSO = AR ÷ quarterly revenue × 91.25. DIO = inventory ÷ quarterly COGS × 91.25.
DIO caveat: the level is not comparable to a conventional manufacturer. ADMA's own 10-K puts the collect-to-release cycle at 7 to 12 months, so several hundred days of inventory is structural. The Q1 2026 figure of 601 days is additionally distorted by COGS collapsing to $33.7m on the yield step. Only the direction is used — inventory +30% since Q4 2024 while revenue is flat.
Accruals ratio, FY2025: (146.930 − 50.4) / ((488.678 + 624.242)/2) = 96.53 / 556.46 = 17.3%.
5. ROIC
| $m | |
|---|---|
| TTM clean EBIT | 206.835 |
| × (1 − 20.7% Q1'26 effective tax rate) | NOPAT 164.0 |
| Total assets (2026-03-31) | 665.184 |
| less cash | (138.153) |
| less non-debt liabilities (274.859 − 196.865) | (77.994) |
| Invested capital | 449.04 |
| ROIC | 36.5% |
Against a WACC of 8.7% (CAPM) to 10.0% (base). ROIC clears WACC by a wide margin. The Quality Criteria
failure is not about the return on capital — it is about the absence of a redeployment mechanism at that
return, which criteria.md requires for a COMPOUNDER, combined with the accruals level.
6. WACC build
| Risk-free | 4.2% |
| Equity risk premium | 5.5% |
| Beta vs SPY | 0.88 (253 daily observations, 2025-07-25 → 2026-07-29) |
| Correlation to SPY | 0.20 |
| ADMA realised vol (annualised) | 55.4% |
| SPY realised vol | 12.7% |
| Cost of equity (CAPM) | 9.1% |
| Cost of debt | 6.17% (filed rate on the JPM facilities at 2026-03-31) |
| Tax rate | 20.7% (Q1 2026 effective) |
| E / D | $2,109m / $197m |
| WACC (CAPM) | 8.70% |
| WACC used (base) | 10.0% |
Why 10.0% and not 8.70%. CAPM prices only market-correlated risk. ADMA's correlation to SPY is 0.20 — the 55.4% volatility is almost entirely idiosyncratic (single product, two customers, one manufacturing site, one regulator). CAPM therefore assigns it a discount rate below a diversified index fund's cost of capital, which is not a usable hurdle for a concentrated single-name book. 10.0% is used as the base and 8.7% and 12.0% are both shown in the sensitivity, so the choice does not hide the answer: at 8.7% the required CAGR is 11.9%, still above the guided high end of 9.8%.
7. Own-multiple history construction
data/adma_multiples.json — 1,903 daily observations, 2019-01-02 → 2026-07-29.
Method: for each trading day, EV = close × shares outstanding as known at that date + debt − cash as known at that date, divided by TTM revenue as known at that date. "As known" means each fundamental steps in on its SEC filing date, not its period end, so the series is never forward-looking. TTM windows were checked for consecutiveness; Q4 derived from FY minus nine-month.
| Window | n | Current EV/Sales | Percentile | Median |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019-01-02 → 2026-07-29 | 1,903 | 4.07x | 34th | 4.69x |
| 2024-01-01 → | 645 | 4.07x | 7th | 8.53x |
| 2026-05-07 → (post-guidance-cut) | 57 | 4.07x | ~55th | 3.97x |
EV/Sales by year (median): 2019 9.42x · 2020 4.31x · 2021 2.80x · 2022 3.97x · 2023 4.21x · 2024 9.04x · 2025 9.48x · 2026 4.72x.
EV/EBIT by year (median, defined only from Nov 2023): 2023 593x · 2024 54.79x · 2025 28.26x ·
2026 12.59x. The 2023 figure is the artifact of EBIT crossing zero and is why the EV/EBIT own-history
anchor is declared UNIDENTIFIED in ADMA_Valuation.md.
8. Reproduction
| Script | Produces |
|---|---|
scripts/px.py |
Alpaca price/bar access (reads .env, never prints credentials) |
scripts/adma_multiples.py |
as-known EV/Sales and EV/EBIT series → data/adma_multiples.json |
scripts/wc.py |
working-capital, DSO/DIO and cash-flow series |
scripts/wacc_beta.py |
beta, correlation, realised vol, WACC |
scripts/rdcf_grid.py |
reverse-DCF sensitivity grid |
scripts/target12m.py |
12-month target grid and implied compression |
scripts/peers.py, scripts/peer_ev.py |
growth-matched plasma comparator pull |
scripts/mentions2.py |
mention-frequency → data/adma_mentions.json |
scripts/events.py |
event-date price reactions |
scripts/fetch8k.py |
8-K exhibit retrieval |
9. Known limitations of this model
- No Street consensus — Alpha Vantage quota exhausted 2026-07-29. All forward figures are company guidance or labelled house extrapolation.
- FY2027 revenue is a house extrapolation. No FY2027 guidance exists; it was withdrawn 2026-05-06.
- Kamada's current borrowings are unverified — last tagged at $3.8m (2021-12-31). Treated as effectively debt-free; the EV/EBIT of 12.7x would fall if material debt exists, which would make the base exit multiple lower, not higher, and would worsen the Valuation Criteria result.
- Grifols is excluded from the multiple anchor for lack of verifiable share count and borrowings in SEC XBRL. Its growth only is used, for the bracket test.
- Q4 figures are derived, not tagged.
- Mention-frequency uses earnings releases, not call transcripts — the Q&A is absent, and the method demonstrably missed the 4 May 2026 paediatric approval.
- No Excel workbook. Stated in the header; deliberate.